Australia’s conservative parties are facing a reckoning that is no longer theoretical, according to new polling analysis that suggests Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is rapidly becoming the dominant force on the Right in regional and rural Australia.
Kos Samaras, director at RedBridge Group, says the scale and geography of One Nation’s support mean traditional measures of national vote share now miss the real danger confronting the Nationals and the Liberal parties.
“Outside Victoria, the National Party may be screaming at that meteor,” Samaras said.
“The first thing to understand is this: the National Party and the LNP (Queensland)/Liberal Party hold most of their seats in regional and rural Australia……precisely the terrain where One Nation is surging hardest.”
While recent polls place One Nation at around 26 per cent nationally, Samaras argues that figure understates its impact because the party’s support is tightly concentrated in non metropolitan seats, particularly in Queensland.
“If One Nation is sitting on 26% nationally, remember: national numbers understate parties with geographically concentrated support,” he said. “One Nation’s vote is concentrated in regional/rural Australia, and most intensely in Queensland.”
On Samaras’s modelling, the seat level picture looks far more confronting for sitting conservative MPs. Across most regional and rural seats nationally, he says One Nation could be polling between 20 and 40 per cent. In regional and rural Queensland, that range climbs to 35 to 45 per cent.
“Because once One Nation is routinely in the mid to high 30s across regional Queensland and other non metro contests, the election stops being ‘how big are they?’ and becomes a much sharper question,” he said. “How often do they make the final two?”
That shift matters because it changes the structure of contests in seats long assumed to be safely conservative. Samaras says final two candidate races are increasingly likely to feature One Nation rather than the Liberal or National candidate, and not always against Labor.
“In some electorates it will be One Nation vs Labor. In many others, especially in seats held by the LNP (Queensland)/Liberal Party or the National Party, it could just as easily be One Nation vs the sitting conservative party”
“The final two candidate contests are likely to be a mixed bag,” he said. “In some electorates it will be One Nation vs Labor. In many others, especially in seats held by the LNP (Queensland)/Liberal Party or the National Party, it could just as easily be One Nation vs the sitting conservative party.”
This is where the uncertainty deepens. Preference flows that once reliably favoured Coalition candidates are no longer predictable. Samaras warns that disaffected conservative voters are not moving in tidy ideological lines.
“That’s what makes this next phase hard to model,” he said. “In National Party and LNP (Queensland) held seats, preference behaviour is far from predictable: disaffected conservative voters don’t flow neatly, and the ‘anti Labor’ reflex can collide with a deep frustration toward the established Right.”
For decades, conservative parties relied on relatively stable preference arrangements to survive multi candidate contests. Samaras argues those assumptions no longer hold.
“So we can’t assume old preference patterns will hold,” he said. “We’ll need to measure preference allocation directly, seat by seat and cohort by cohort and once we do, we’ll have a much clearer guide to what these contests will actually look like on election night.”
The warning comes as RedBridge polling points to what Samaras describes as a structural realignment rather than a temporary protest vote. “The Right’s structural realignment in Australia is here and the numbers are brutal,” he said.
Data from the latest AFR and RedBridge Accent poll show One Nation overtaking the combined remnants of the traditional conservative bloc. “Our latest AFR (Australian Financial Review) / RedBridge Accent poll shows the former conservative bloc has shrunk into a political rump, while One Nation has surged into the dominant force on the Right,” Samaras said.
“Start with the topline: One Nation isn’t just ahead, it’s ahead by a mile.”
What remains of the old order is stark. Outside Queensland, the Liberal Party is polling at 13 per cent. In Queensland, the LNP sits at 4 per cent. The National Party is down to 2 per cent.
“As the contest increasingly shifts toward Labor vs One Nation, we will need to model and test preference behaviour in a Labor v One Nation two party framework, because the preference flows of former Coalition voters will shape the next political era”
The erosion is even clearer in voter cohorts once central to Coalition strength. Among voters with trade or TAFE qualifications, the former Coalition parties combine for 14 per cent, while One Nation polls at 33 per cent. Among Gen X voters, the former Coalition sits at 12 per cent against One Nation’s 35 per cent.
“It’s a structural transfer of conservative identity, from mainstream centre right parties to a populist right alternative,” Samaras said.
On the other side of politics, Labor’s position has been comparatively steady. Samaras notes that Labor’s primary vote is holding at 34 per cent, broadly in line with the last federal election, with RedBridge reporting 56 per cent two party preferred to Labor.
But stability on Labor’s side does not simplify the contest ahead. As One Nation replaces the Coalition as Labor’s primary opponent in more seats, preference behaviour becomes the decisive variable.
“But here’s the key point going forward,” Samaras said. “As the contest increasingly shifts toward Labor vs One Nation, we will need to model and test preference behaviour in a Labor v One Nation two party framework, because the preference flows of former Coalition voters will shape the next political era.”
The challenge for the Liberals and Nationals, he argues, is structural rather than tactical. “Unless the former Coalition can turn this around (big ask, just ask the Conservatives in the UK).”
Samaras situates Australia’s experience within a broader international pattern, where traditional conservative parties fracture under pressure from populist challengers.
“This may be confronting for some,” he said. “But it’s also familiar internationally.”
“Australia wasn’t immune. We were just a little behind the global curve: where traditional conservative parties fracture, hollow out, and get replaced by populist right wing alternatives.”
“Australia wasn’t immune. We were just a little behind the global curve: where traditional conservative parties fracture, hollow out, and get replaced by populist right wing alternatives”
If current trends continue, Samaras expects the Right to split further along ideological lines rather than reunify.
“Going forward, we expect the following trends, unless the Liberal Party can turn this around,” he said. “Liberal moderates bleeding to Labor and independents. Liberal conservatives consolidating into One Nation.”
For seats across regional and rural Australia, that projection raises uncomfortable questions for sitting MPs who have long relied on party loyalty and predictable preference deals. The rise of One Nation, Samaras suggests, is forcing a rethink of what constitutes a winnable contest.
The meteor he refers to is no longer theoretical. It is already entering the atmosphere.
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