A sharp rise in international student dropouts at Australian universities is raising fresh concerns about the integrity of the student visa system, with new analysis pointing to a growing pattern of enrolment with little intention to complete a degree.
A report by the Menzies Research Centre, based on newly released Department of Education data, shows that first-year attrition among international undergraduate students has climbed to its highest level on record. In 2023, 17.4 per cent of commencing international undergraduates dropped out within their first year, up from less than 10 per cent in the years before Covid. The authors note that the figure has “likely increased since”.
While attrition alone does not prove intent, the report argues that the scale, concentration and timing of these dropouts strongly suggest a structural shift. In 2023, eight universities recorded attrition rates above 20 per cent, five were above 25 per cent and ten exceeded 33 per cent. At Central Queensland University, the rate reached 57.2 per cent, meaning well over half of international undergraduates left in their first year.
By contrast, the largest and most expensive metropolitan universities reported relatively low attrition. The University of Sydney, UNSW, Melbourne and Monash all recorded rates under 5 per cent. The pattern, the report suggests, is closely linked to cost and location.
The data suggest that many students enrol, complete the minimum required period of study, then withdraw and move onto a Bridging visa while applying for a cheaper vocational course or a new student visa
The report was authored by Salvatore Babones and Preston Vissotski, researchers with the Menzies Research Centre, and draws on newly released Department of Education data to examine rising international student attrition and its implications for the integrity of Australia’s student visa system.
“In general, the most expensive universities have the lowest attrition rates, while the least expensive universities have the highest attrition,” the authors write. Rather than financial stress pushing students out of higher-fee institutions, the report points to incentives facing those primarily seeking access to Australia’s labour market. A student pursuing that goal, it argues, is more likely to choose a lower-cost degree, where “the content and quality is irrelevant”.
The report highlights the role of regional and outer-metropolitan universities that operate capital-city branch campuses, often in Sydney and Melbourne. These campuses, some run in-house and others through private providers, are marketed largely to international students and offer lower-fee degrees with easier access to employment.
Queensland University of Technology noted that its international student attrition rate had risen to 46.4 per cent for the 2023 cohort
The data suggest that many students enrol, complete the minimum required period of study, then withdraw and move onto a Bridging visa while applying for a cheaper vocational course or a new student visa. If unsuccessful, they can appeal to the Administrative Review Tribunal, extending their stay and work rights.
One university annual report cited in the study captures the issue starkly. Queensland University of Technology noted that its international student attrition rate had risen to 46.4 per cent for the 2023 cohort “because of an unusually high number of students who did not meaningfully engage from the outset”.
The scale of the downstream effects is substantial. By mid-2025, there were 107,274 temporary migrants in Australia on Bridging visas while applying for new student visas, up from just 13,034 in 2023. At the same time, 42,098 student visa cancellation and refusal appeals were pending before the Administrative Review Tribunal, accounting for more than one-third of its total caseload.
The authors warn that these trends carry broader consequences, including pressure on housing and services and reputational damage to Australia’s international education sector
According to the report, a non-genuine student can often obtain the right to work in Australia for more than two years for less than $25,000 in tuition, visa fees and insurance, even if their applications are ultimately refused. In some cases, further appeals or asylum applications can extend lawful work rights for several more years.
The authors warn that these trends carry broader consequences, including pressure on housing and services and reputational damage to Australia’s international education sector. They argue that while many students come with genuine academic intent, the current system has created incentives that are being exploited at scale.
To address the problem, the report proposes targeted administrative reforms aimed at restoring confidence without undermining legitimate international education. These include prohibiting universities from contracting private providers to offer courses under the university’s name, and requiring students who wish to change education providers to return offshore and reapply for a visa.
The warning is clear. Without changes, the report suggests, first-year attrition, course-hopping and prolonged reliance on Bridging visas risk becoming entrenched features of Australia’s student migration system, with long-term consequences that extend well beyond university campuses.
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