International students from India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan will face tougher visa scrutiny after the federal government quietly moved the four South Asian nations into the highest risk category under Australia’s student visa framework, a change that could slow processing times and lift refusal rates.
The adjustment took effect on 8 January 2026, when the Department of Home Affairs altered the Evidence Levels for several South Asian countries under the Simplified Student Visa Framework. India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan were shifted from Evidence Level 2 to Evidence Level 3, while Sri Lanka moved from Level 1 to Level 2.
A Home Affairs spokesman confirmed to news.com.au the change, saying: “On 8 January 2026, Evidence Levels (EL) of several countries in South Asia were altered.”
“This change will assist with the effective management of emerging integrity issues, while continuing to facilitate genuine students seeking a quality education in Australia,” he said.
The move is notable because it occurred outside the usual update cycle. Former Immigration Department deputy secretary Dr Abul Rizvi described it as “highly unusual”, noting that Evidence Levels are typically reviewed mid year using accumulated data such as refusal rates, visa cancellations, overstays and subsequent protection visa claims.
Under the Simplified Student Visa Framework, applications are assessed using a risk matrix that combines the applicant’s country of citizenship with their chosen education provider. Evidence Levels range from 1 to 3, with higher levels indicating greater perceived risk and heavier documentation requirements.
At Level 1, applications are generally streamlined, with limited evidence required for financial capacity or English proficiency. Level 2 requires some additional material, depending on the provider. Level 3, now applied to India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan, demands comprehensive proof of financial capacity, including funds for travel, tuition and 12 months of living expenses, as well as stronger evidence of English language proficiency and academic history. Applications at this level are subject to more manual checks, which can lengthen processing times.
Dr Rizvi said the decision was likely driven by targeted data analysis rather than broad trends across the sector. He suggested the department had identified higher levels of fraud through sampling, prompting the shift.
Former Immigration Department deputy secretary Dr Abul Rizvi described it as “highly unusual”, noting that Evidence Levels are typically reviewed mid year using accumulated data such as refusal rates, visa cancellations, overstays and subsequent protection visa claims
He warned that the practical impact could be substantial. Visa officers may take longer to assess applications as they cross check documents, verify bank statements and contact institutions directly. He also predicted higher refusal rates from the affected countries, with decision making placing greater weight on financial and academic evidence rather than English test results.
The four countries account for a large share of Australia’s international education market. Together, they made up close to one third of international student enrolments last year. India alone recorded 140,871 student enrolments in 2025, while Nepal accounted for 68,456, with smaller numbers from Bangladesh and Bhutan.
While the government has stressed that the change does not alter the national planning level of 295,000 international student places for 2026, the shift could reshape where students come from. Dr Rizvi suggested higher refusal rates from South Asia may be offset by increased applications from lower risk countries such as Vietnam or Indonesia, which remain at Level 1, or even China, despite its recent move to Level 2.
The policy change follows growing concern about fraud within international education pathways, including reports of large scale fake qualification operations overseas. In December 2025, authorities in India seized more than 100,000 counterfeit degrees in a major bust. Experts have cautioned that there is limited direct evidence linking those cases to Australian visa applications, but the episode has sharpened focus on document integrity.
Industry groups have responded cautiously. Universities Australia said it was monitoring the effects of the decision and supported measures that protect the reputation of the sector. Phil Honeywood from the International Education Association of Australia noted that tighter integrity settings, combined with enrolment caps that have already hit parts of the private sector, may lead to a smaller but more robust student cohort.
He also pointed to shifting global demand, with students rejected by the United States, the United Kingdom or Canada increasingly looking to Australia as an alternative destination.
The move sits alongside broader regulatory action aimed at lifting standards across the education system. In July 2025, the Australian Skills Quality Authority cancelled more than 25,000 qualifications issued by non compliant providers, a step widely seen as a clean up of poor practice within parts of the vocational sector.
For prospective students from the affected countries, the message is mixed. Genuine applicants can still succeed, but preparation will matter more. Strong, well documented evidence of finances, academic background and study plans will be critical, and processing times are likely to be longer.
Migration advisers are urging students to seek up to date advice and carefully review current requirements before lodging applications, as the tighter settings are expected to remain in place while the government assesses their impact.
Reporting includes comments by Dr Abul Rizvi and Phil Honeywood originally published by news.com.au.
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