South Australia’s political mood is shifting across age groups, and the latest Fox and Hedgehog polling sketches a party system struggling to keep its footing. The timing is striking. Days before Vincent Tarzia stepped aside as Liberal leader, surveys taken between 24 November and 5 December already pointed to a deep structural challenge for his party. Those numbers now form the backdrop to Ashton Hurn’s rapid elevation.
Across the four age brackets, Labor leads comfortably. Among voters aged 65 and above, Labor holds 45 per cent of the primary vote compared with the Liberals’ 29 per cent. The two-party preferred sits at 57 to 43. The gap widens in younger groups. Voters aged 50 to 64 place Labor at 35 per cent and the Liberals at 22 per cent, while One Nation records a striking 21 per cent. Among those aged 35 to 49, Labor sits at 42 per cent and the Liberals fall to 21 per cent. For voters aged 18 to 34, Labor remains ahead at 41 per cent, with the Greens at 27 per cent and the Liberals down at 10 per cent. Labor’s two-party preferred in this youngest group reaches 72 to 28, a margin that would have been unthinkable for the Liberals a decade ago.
These figures predate Tarzia’s resignation. They also predate the speculation that had swirled around him for weeks. The former leader had been seen campaigning alongside candidates such as KD Singh, once posting, “Out and about listening to what matters most to South Australians, great to be alongside candidates like KD Singh.” His decision to step down three months out from the state election has since been framed as a wish to devote time to his young family and focus on the electorate of Hartley. The party, however, had been restless.
The arrival of Ashton Hurn changes the story without changing the arithmetic. Her rise is one of the most unusual in recent South Australian politics. A Barossa Valley upbringing, a childhood shaped by farming and sport, and a family steeped in community leadership gave her a grounding that still carries weight in regional South Australia. Her grandfather Brian Hurn claimed five wickets against England in a tour match before serving as Barossa mayor for nearly three decades. Her brother Shannon captained the West Coast Eagles to a premiership. Her own sporting life took her through the South Australian Sports Institute as a netballer.
She carried that sense of service into politics. After becoming the first in her family to attend university, she held advisory roles with senior federal Liberals and eventually became director of media and communications under Premier Steven Marshall. Her entry into parliament in 2022 was through Schubert, a safe Liberal seat stretching across the wine country. Within months she was in the shadow health role during a time when ambulance ramping had become a defining political concern. She was blunt in her critiques and quick to press the government on delays, which helped her stand out in a party struggling for traction.
Tarzia’s departure left a vacuum that the Liberal Party filled within days. Hurn arrived at the party room with her toddler on her hip and left as leader. “I’m a mum, I’m a daughter of a farmer, I’m a public school-educated person,” she told reporters as she stepped into the job. It was a moment designed to signal freshness, normality, and the kind of social anchors that remain powerful in Australian politics.
The challenge she inherits is immense. Polling across multiple firms throughout the year shows Labor ahead on two-party preferred by double digits, some projecting a result that could rival the biggest swings in the modern era. Many of the Liberals’ once comfortable seats are now marginal. One Nation’s presence in regional areas, including the Barossa, complicates the Liberal path further by fracturing the conservative vote. Meanwhile Premier Peter Malinauskas retains strong approval ratings, and his government has set the frame on cost-of-living, health, and employment policy.
What remains unclear is whether Hurn’s personal story can reconnect the Liberals with younger, more diverse, and more urban segments of the electorate
What remains unclear is whether her personal story can reconnect the Liberals with younger, more diverse, and more urban segments of the electorate. Multicultural communities in Adelaide have grown in influence across multiple elections, and these voters tend to back parties with strong social cohesion policies. Hurn’s parliamentary record is still thin on multicultural issues, and early comments on reviewing the state’s First Nations Voice have been read in different ways by different groups. It leaves her with work to do.
The polls released this week suggest long-term drift rather than a sudden rupture. Older South Australians still lean toward the Liberals, but the shift among middle-aged voters is clear, and the party’s standing among younger groups is weaker than it has been in a generation. If those trends harden, Hurn will be managing expectations rather than shaping the contest.
Her appeal lies in authenticity and energy at a moment when her party appears worn down. Whether that is enough to steady the Liberals between now and March will depend on her ability to broaden the story beyond her personal rise. The numbers she faces give her little room for missteps, but they also offer a sharp measure of what renewal will require.
Sources: Fox and Hedgehog and DemosAU, The Advertiser, and polling aggregates from Poll Bludger
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