Barnaby Joyce has resigned from the National Party after three decades, ending a long and turbulent chapter in Australian politics and triggering a fresh round of uncertainty for a Coalition already under pressure. The announcement came during the final sitting day of 2025, with Joyce citing deep policy differences with Nationals leader David Littleproud. He has given no indication of whether he plans to join another party, though speculation continues about a possible shift to One Nation.
Joyce had already ruled out recontesting New England in 2028, leaving the door open to a future role elsewhere and prompting weeks of whispers about Pauline Hanson courting him for a Senate run. His resignation cements the split but leaves the political destination unresolved. For now, he exits as an independent, carrying with him the same grievances about climate and energy policy that pushed him further from his party’s direction.
His departure lands in the middle of a week of new polling, which paints a fractured and unsettled national landscape. The latest Essential numbers show the divide between men and women widening sharply. Among men, the Coalition has lifted to 30 per cent, up three points, while Labor has slipped to 37 per cent. The two-party preferred measure has the Coalition at 49 per cent and Labor at 48 per cent. Women tell the opposite story. Labor has risen to 35 per cent among female voters, with the Coalition falling to 23 per cent. On two-party preferred, women place Labor at 52 per cent and the Coalition at 39 per cent.
Older voters have shifted again towards the Coalition. Those aged fifty-five and above give the Coalition a primary vote of 36 per cent, up four points, while Labor drops to 31 per cent. One Nation records 19 per cent in this age bracket, continuing its steady rise across regional and older demographics.
The middle-aged bracket carries more mixed signals. Voters aged between thirty-five and fifty-four lean strongly towards Labor, with a primary vote of 41 per cent compared with 22 per cent for the Coalition. Greens and One Nation sit at 10 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. Labor holds a firm 56 to 39 lead in the two-party preferred measure for this group.
Among younger voters, support remains firmly to the left. Eighteen to thirty-four-year-olds give Labor 36 per cent and the Greens 21 per cent. The Coalition trails at 21 per cent, highlighting the generational challenge the party faces. Essential places Labor at 55 per cent two-party preferred in this group, with the Coalition at 36 per cent.
Joyce’s outspoken criticism of net zero, his advocacy for agricultural interests, and his refusal to shift towards the policy priorities favoured by younger voters mirror the Coalition’s struggle to unite its base. His differences with Littleproud reflect a party at odds with itself, split between those who want to continue contesting the climate and immigration debates through sharper language, and those who believe the path back to government requires rebuilding credibility with younger, diverse and urban Australians.
The speculation around Joyce’s future has carried political weight for weeks. His presence in another party, even without a parliamentary seat, would give Hanson a powerful symbol of the conservative frustration she has been courting. At the same time, his departure from the Nationals shrinks the pool of experienced figures inside a party already losing ground in younger and urban segments of the electorate.
The new polls show a country choosing differently depending on age, gender and region. The Coalition’s gains among older men pull one way, while its collapse among young women pulls in another. One Nation continues to harvest disillusionment among older conservatives, reinforcing the pressure inside the Coalition’s right flank. Joyce’s departure adds another layer to the instability, underscoring the internal conflicts that have shaped the Coalition’s direction since the May election.
Labor remains ahead overall. The next set of polls will show whether Joyce’s resignation pushes more voters towards protest parties or reinforces the view that the Coalition is losing its grip on internal unity.
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