RedBridge Group director Kos Samaras says the growing wave of anti-immigration rallies represents frustration, not national momentum. “We’re looking at a group of frustrated conservative voters, angry about immigration and still reacting to the May 3 result, using One Nation as a vehicle for protest,” he said.
Samaras believes the movement’s noise masks its limited reach. “Since the election, particularly after August 31, the only real movement in national polling has been within the constellation of right-wing parties,” he said. “While One Nation’s vote has doubled in some surveys, this doesn’t translate into them taking seats from the Coalition. What they can do, however, is fragment the conservative vote and create serious headaches for the LNP in tight contests against Labor.”
Recent national polling supports that view. Labor remains steady in the mid-50s on two-party-preferred, while the Coalition continues to lose ground. One Nation has climbed to 13 per cent nationally, but the gain comes mainly from disillusioned Coalition voters, especially those aged 50 to 64. Despite their visibility online, these shifts have not expanded the conservative base; they have fractured it.
Yet organisers of the “March for Australia” movement claim they are giving voice to what they call the “mainstream majority.” Hugo Lennon, known by his online handle “Auspill,” wrote after the 19 October rally, “The success of March for Australia tells us what polls have for decades, that young or old, rural or metropolitan, the majority of Aussies want an end to mass immigration.”
That claim sits uneasily beside the data. Fourteen national polls since August show Labor holding firm and public sentiment largely unchanged. What has shifted is the tone of conservative politics itself—louder online, angrier on the streets, and increasingly disconnected from the broader electorate.
For organisers like Bec Freedom, who has emerged as one of the movement’s key public voices, the rhetoric is deeply personal. In a recent video, she asked followers, “Are we losing our national identity? Is Australia still Australia? Or have we been overrun with so much immigration that it’s becoming unrecognisable?” Her clip ends with a call to action for the next March for Australia event on 26 January, Australia Day.
The rallies claim to stand for sovereignty and belonging, but the polling suggests a different reality—one where anger has become performance, and protest has replaced persuasion. The movement may be growing louder, but it is not growing larger.
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