Melbourne’s property cycle appears to be stabilising after months of uncertainty, with new data pointing to a market that’s bottomed out and ready for cautious recovery. According to Herron Todd White’s September 2025 Month in Review, Melbourne is sitting at the bottom of the national property clock for houses, while units have already shifted into a rising phase.
The firm’s analysts describe the current phase as one of stability rather than weakness. “We’re seeing two Melbournes,” the report notes. “The detached housing market is stabilising, while the unit sector is already strengthening under rental pressure and migration growth.” This dual pattern reflects an economy recalibrating after rapid post-pandemic expansion and interest rate volatility.
Across greater Melbourne and Geelong, the appetite for vacant land has also returned. The HTW data shows a sharp rise in land sales in 2025, with value-conscious buyers leading the charge. Population growth, infrastructure investment, and renewed borrowing confidence following rate cuts have all helped revive the market.
The northern corridor remains Melbourne’s strongest growth area, with suburbs such as Donnybrook, Mickleham, Beveridge, Wallan, Sunbury, and Wollert recording brisk demand. In the first quarter of 2025, the Northern Growth Corridor’s median land price rose 3.2% to $383,000, while Hume’s sub-market crossed the $400,000 mark for the first time. “Vacant land in the northern suburbs is dynamic and diverse,” HTW reported. “Affordability, lifestyle options, and infrastructure growth are keeping demand healthy.”
Buyers priced out of inner suburbs are finding opportunity in the outer ring, where titled land remains more affordable. The federal Help to Buy scheme and easing deposit requirements are giving first-home buyers a boost, particularly in the city’s north and west. Areas like Tarneit, Truganina, and Wyndham Vale are sustaining strong volumes, with typical lots between 350 and 400 square metres priced from $320,000 to $390,000.
The south-east continues to deliver balance between price and livability. In Clyde North, 512-square-metre blocks hover around $510,000, while smaller lots in Clyde sell closer to $375,000. Further south, the Mornington Peninsula remains aspirational territory, with prices above $490,000 for small coastal lots. “These estates remain attractive to first-home buyers seeking family-friendly environments at sustainable price points,” the report said.
Established suburbs in the east are showing resilience. Glen Waverley, Mount Waverley, and Rowville continue to draw family buyers, with large blocks in school zones fetching between $1.7 million and $1.9 million. Developers are still active, pursuing dual-occupancy and knockdown-rebuild projects.
While houses are anchored at the bottom of the market cycle, units are already showing momentum. Rents in Melbourne’s inner suburbs, including Southbank, Carlton, and Docklands, have climbed by more than 15% over the past year. Tight vacancy rates and continued migration are encouraging investors to return. Affordability and rising yields have restored confidence that was absent for much of the past three years.
Geelong and the Bellarine Peninsula are following a similar path, buoyed by infrastructure expansion and population growth. The G21 region is planning over 70,000 new homes by 2050, with land releases keeping prices steady. Yet Herron Todd White warns that “construction costs still outpace market values in some estates, meaning the combined land-and-build value doesn’t always translate to higher resale prices.”
Across the metropolitan area, the trend is one of cautious optimism. High building costs and planning delays remain obstacles, but the fundamentals—population, infrastructure, and employment—are intact. “While Melbourne’s housing market is at the bottom, it’s the calm before the climb,” the firm’s analysts said.
With rate cuts improving borrowing capacity, 2026 could mark the beginning of Melbourne’s next recovery phase. For long-term buyers, this period of stability may present the best window of value seen in years.
Sources: Herron Todd White, September 2025 Month in Review
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