Australia’s labour market is showing signs of stress that can no longer be dismissed as post-pandemic readjustments. New data from SEEK reveals job competition is at its highest since the COVID-19 lockdowns, with applications per advertisement now exceeding their 2020 peak. At the same time, the number of jobs created by the private sector over the past year is lower than the number of new migrants arriving each month.
This mismatch is fuelling growing concern and the numbers tell a clear story. SEEK’s applications-per-ad index, updated through June 2025, shows an increase of more than 70 per cent compared to March 2022. The chart is climbing steadily and now sits well above its long-term average. There are simply too many people competing for too few roles.
Some of this surge can be explained by a reduction in job ads. SEEK itself reported a 1.4 per cent month-on-month decline in listings in April 2023. A shrinking number of available positions, paired with a growing pool of jobseekers, naturally inflates the number of applications per ad. But that doesn’t explain it all.
According to The Australian, 82 per cent of the 711,000 new jobs created in the past two years have been in government-funded positions, mostly in health, education and public administration. Only 53,000 private sector jobs were added in 2024. That’s fewer than 4,500 a month.
By comparison, net overseas migration stood at 518,000 in the 2023–24 financial year. That number has continued to rise. Entrepreneur and freelancer.com CEO Matt Barrie recently noted that monthly migrant arrivals now average 56,000, which would bring annual net migration closer to 670,000 this financial year.
Australia is bringing in more people each month than the private sector is hiring in a year.
This imbalance is being felt across the economy. SEEK’s data shows the labour market is tightening from the demand side. The public sector is absorbing most of the labour force growth, but that doesn’t come without cost.
Economists from the Productivity Commission have long warned that sustained growth in public sector employment tends to drag on productivity, especially when not matched by gains in private enterprise. And that’s exactly what’s happening. Australia’s GDP per capita has been declining for several quarters, despite an overall rise in economic output.
MacroBusiness, in a detailed piece last September, pointed to the widening productivity gap and falling living standards. “We are growing the economy by growing the headcount,” one analyst wrote, “but the pie isn’t getting any bigger for the average Australian.”
Housing markets offer another visible pressure point. CoreLogic’s rental data shows affordability has hit historic lows in Sydney and Melbourne. Wage growth, according to the Reserve Bank’s latest figures, is running at 2.5 per cent, well below inflation, which hovered at 3.8 per cent in the June quarter.
This convergence of housing stress, stagnant wages and rising job competition is becoming a lived experience for many Australians, especially new graduates, skilled migrants and middle-income families squeezed by rising costs and falling opportunities.
The Institute of Public Affairs (IPA) argues that Australia’s current trajectory mirrors Canada’s, where high immigration and weak job creation have led to falling GDP per capita. The Grattan Institute has taken a more policy-oriented view, calling for a recalibration of migration settings. Their 2023 report linked rapid population growth to housing shortages, transport congestion and wage stagnation. It warned that unless migration is tied more closely to economic capacity and labour market needs, these pressures will only intensify.
To be clear, the migration programme is not the problem in itself. Australia has benefited from skilled and motivated newcomers for decades. But when the pace of arrivals outstrips the economy’s ability to absorb them productively, the system starts to fray.
A job market where most growth is funded by taxpayers raises questions about sustainability. Public sector wages are ultimately paid out of the productive capacity of the private economy. If the latter stalls, the former becomes harder to support.
So far, the federal government has responded by flagging a productivity summit, which will focus on issues including tax, education and skills training. But many argue that without a serious look at how public money is being spent and whether it’s actually unlocking business investment, the discussion will miss the mark.
The evidence is piling up. SEEK’s job application figures don’t lie. Private job creation has stalled. Migration is strong. Cost-of-living pressures are mounting. Productivity is falling. The mismatch is Australia’s next big economic test.
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