Markets often reward memory more than courage. But Manish Chokhani has both. Speaking to an audience of young investors with the poise of a man who’s ridden multiple economic storms, he offered neither doomsday prophecy nor sugar-coated optimism. What he did offer was perspective—a rare commodity in an age of algorithmic conviction and meme-stock exuberance.
“We’ve come at the tail end of a glorious bull market in equities,” he said. “Since 1990, for 35 years, you had one-way traffic—rates kept going down, equity multiples kept going up.” That era, according to Chokhani, is now closed. What lies ahead, he suggests, is not merely a new cycle but a new set of rules entirely.
Chokhani, a director at Enam Holdings in India and an elder statesman of India’s capital markets, didn’t mince words. “You can’t invest for the long term when the rules of the game are being rewritten,” he warned. “Returns in the next four-five years will come from somewhere else entirely.” His bet? Hard assets and emerging markets—not overvalued midcaps or momentum-chasing tech names.
The shift, he argues, was delayed. “It should have happened in 2008-09 if the world had woken up.” Instead, global policymakers papered over fundamental issues by printing money. America, in particular, comes under his withering gaze. “They’ve lived beyond their means,” he said, citing “current account and fiscal deficits worse than India’s at its worst.”
Chokhani traced the historical pattern: every decade, the US inflated bubbles—Nifty Fifty in the ’70s, Japan and Taiwan in the ’80s, BRICs in the 2000s, and now the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks in America. “The rest of the 493 US stocks haven’t moved,” he noted, highlighting the fragility beneath headline numbers. “This market was due for a blow-up.”
What’s striking in Chokhani’s analysis is the clarity with which he links financial architecture to geopolitics. The dollar’s centrality, he explained, was never inevitable. “Since the ’70s, when the dollar depegged from gold, the US created the illusion of stability while pushing instability into the global system.” The results are visible now, he says—from inflation to tariffs to the growing desire among BRICS nations to bypass the dollar altogether.
Even Britain, Chokhani notes, no longer lives up to its reputation. “The UK is basically now London real estate versus the rest of the country,” he said. “The pound at 100 makes no sense. In this decade, you may see it at 50 to the rupee.”
Chokhani doesn’t just critique Western malaise. He is just as candid about India’s blind spots. “Our largest software company is smaller than China’s fifth-largest tech firm,” he said. “We missed the boat when China kept the yuan pegged and built massive capacity after 2008.” India, meanwhile, poured liquidity into consumption schemes like NREGA instead of manufacturing infrastructure. “We have the talent,” he said. “What we lack is internal coherence.”
And that coherence will be essential as artificial intelligence and robotics take centre stage. “In the next ten years, I really wonder how we’ll lift people up,” he said, pointing to India’s unfriendly labour laws, patchy port access, and the bureaucratic harassment faced by industrialists. “The average Indian entrepreneur deserves a Padma Shri,” he said only half-jokingly.
Still, he is no pessimist. India’s potential, he believes, remains massive—so long as investors are clear-eyed about what it will take to unlock it. “Everyone’s talking about India becoming a $30 trillion economy,” he said, “but remember—Argentina was once the richest country in the world.”
So what should investors do?
“Create cash,” Chokhani advised. “Think differently from what got you the returns in the last four years. Don’t expect 50-60 P/E stocks to keep delivering.” He cited historical examples when he exited the markets entirely—before the Harshad Mehta scam, after Infosys’s 2001 warning, before the 2008 global financial crisis. “Every bull market ends and begins elsewhere,” he said. “You just have to know where to look.”
And where to look now, according to Chokhani, is towards scarcity. “Hard assets are hard for a reason,” he said. “It’s tough to put up factories. It’s tough to mine material. That’s why they’ll appreciate, especially with supply chains breaking and inflation heating up.”
The tone may have been sober, but the message was anything but despairing. “A bull market is not permanent. A bear market is not permanent. Trump is not permanent,” he quipped. “This too shall pass.”
He remains optimistic about India’s entrepreneurs. “We’ve beaten MNCs in FMCG, pharma, banking,” he pointed out. “Halidram gets a $10 billion valuation. We don’t care about Lever anymore.” He admires the country’s new founders, even if he laments the bureaucratic drag. “The youngsters are doing drones, space, deeptech. Money is available. It takes time—but we’ll get there.”
Chokhani’s advice to his son is the same he’d offer to any young investor: “Find what you’re good at. Fail big before 30. After that, it’s harder to take risks. But if you get your framework early, it’s a blessing.”
That framework, for him, is built on discipline and patience—qualities reinforced by his own Vipassana practice. “You buy cheap. You wait. And when the excesses come, you sell without apology.”
Valuation, he said, is the compass. Not narrative. Not hype. “When you’re paying 60 times earnings for a stock, you’re renting an apartment that earns you 2% yield and calling it wealth,” he said. “That’s not investing. That’s dreaming.”
The final takeaway? “Be large-hearted,” he said. “Be useful. Be clear-headed about cycles. And remember, your money is hard-earned. Don’t be casual with it.”
This conversation, featured in Episode 1 of Groww Legends, focuses on what a changing global architecture means for Indian investors in India. Chokhani lays out why long-term strategies must be rethought—particularly in the context of India’s market dynamics.
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📉@chokhani_manish warns of shifting market rules post-35-yr bull run. 💰 Advocates hard assets & emerging markets over inflated tech stocks. 🇮🇳 Critiques India's missed manufacturing opportunities but backs young entrepreneurs. #TheIndianSunhttps://t.co/8i0SOP0ADy
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