As the 2025 federal election approaches, the seat of Paterson in New South Wales has emerged as a crucial battleground. Labor’s Meryl Swanson, who has represented the electorate since 2016, is defending a slender 2.6% margin, a narrow lead that could easily be overturned given the right circumstances. This contest is expected to be one of the most closely watched in the region, reflecting broader political trends that are shaping marginal seats across Australia.
Paterson is a mixed electorate, combining urban and rural areas, with a population spread across Maitland, Port Stephens, and surrounding districts. The demographic makeup is diverse, with a significant number of families, retirees, and younger working-class voters. The electorate’s median age is 41, slightly older than the national average. While many residents are employed in trades, services, and health sectors, agriculture remains an important part of the local economy, as does tourism, particularly along the coastline.
This diverse mix of voters, each with different concerns and priorities, sets the stage for a fiercely contested election. Key issues such as job security, the future of regional industries, and environmental protection will dominate the discussions as candidates vie for the seat.
One of the most significant issues in the upcoming election is the proposed offshore windfarm project near Port Stephens. This project, which would involve the installation of massive wind turbines off the coast, has become a lightning rod for local opposition. Environmental concerns, particularly the impact on marine life and the local fishing industry, have led to widespread protests from community groups and residents. Many are worried about the potential for tourism to suffer as the turbines could affect the area’s pristine views and natural landscapes.
While the windfarm is part of the federal government’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions and increasing renewable energy capacity, the consultation process has been criticised as insufficient. Several public demonstrations, including paddle-out protests by surfers and local fishermen, have helped to bring attention to these concerns.
Labor’s Meryl Swanson has been forced to defend her stance on the project, trying to balance her government’s commitment to renewable energy with the need to address local concerns. Swanson has emphasised the importance of transitioning to renewable energy while working to ensure that local communities benefit from the process, particularly through job creation in the renewable energy sector. However, her position has been met with mixed reactions, with many voters feeling that their concerns have not been adequately addressed.
Swanson’s opponents are also capitalising on the offshore wind farm debate, with several candidates making it a central focus of their campaigns. Laurence Antcliff, the Liberal Party’s candidate, has positioned himself as a staunch critic of the wind farm project. Antcliff has pledged to advocate for the cancellation of the proposal if elected, aligning himself with the growing opposition in the community. He has also criticised Labor’s handling of the consultation process, accusing the government of prioritising national energy goals over the concerns of local residents. Antcliff’s message resonates particularly with conservative voters who are wary of the environmental impact of large-scale energy projects.
In addition to the wind farm issue, Antcliff has focused on broader economic concerns, including job security and the cost of living. He argues that the transition to renewable energy needs to be managed carefully to ensure that it does not undermine the region’s existing industries, particularly mining and manufacturing. His platform also emphasises the importance of regional development and infrastructure investment, two issues that are particularly relevant to voters in Paterson.
Another significant challenger is Arnon Wither from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Wither, like Antcliff, is strongly opposed to the offshore wind farm proposal, but he also targets broader national issues, particularly energy affordability and immigration. One Nation’s platform has resonated with voters who are disillusioned with both major parties and feel that their concerns about Australian sovereignty and security are being overlooked. Wither’s message appeals to a segment of the electorate that is looking for an alternative to the traditional political establishment.
Paul Johns, representing The Greens, brings a different perspective to the race. Although environmental protection is a key issue for Johns, his campaign has also focused on sustainable development and local job creation within the renewable energy sector. The Greens’ position on climate change has led them to advocate for more ambitious climate policies, but in Paterson, where many voters are employed in industries that could be disrupted by such policies, this message has been met with mixed reactions. Nonetheless, Johns has managed to tap into the concerns of voters who are worried about the long-term environmental consequences of unchecked industrial development.
In addition to these major candidates, several independent candidates are contesting the seat, adding another layer of complexity to the race. Philip Penfold, a local businessman, has campaigned on the promise of increasing regional development and supporting small businesses. April Maree Scott, another independent, has focused her campaign on local community issues, particularly healthcare access and education. These candidates are likely to appeal to voters who feel that neither major party adequately represents their interests.
Job security is another significant issue that is shaping the electoral landscape in Paterson. The region has historically relied on industries such as mining, agriculture, and manufacturing, but these sectors are facing increasing pressure as Australia transitions to a low-carbon economy. Many voters are concerned that this transition will lead to job losses, particularly in industries that have traditionally provided stable employment opportunities.
Both Labor and the Liberal Party are focusing on the need to create new jobs in renewable energy and infrastructure projects. However, some voters remain skeptical, fearing that the shift to renewable energy could lead to job displacement without adequate compensation or retraining programs. This concern is especially pronounced among older workers in sectors like mining and agriculture, who may struggle to transition into new roles in the green economy.
Regional development is also a key issue for many voters in Paterson. The electorate has experienced significant population growth, particularly in areas like Maitland and Port Stephens, but the infrastructure required to support this growth has not always kept pace. Voters are increasingly concerned about overcrowded roads, inadequate public transport, and limited access to healthcare and education services. As such, candidates in Paterson are under pressure to outline clear plans for addressing these infrastructure gaps while also ensuring that the region remains attractive to investment and development.
Paterson’s electoral dynamics are reflective of broader trends in marginal regional seats across Australia. Voters in these electorates are increasingly looking for candidates who can balance national issues like climate change and energy policy with local concerns about job security, infrastructure, and community well-being. As the election approaches, the outcome in Paterson will likely serve as a bellwether for how regional voters across the country are responding to the major parties’ policies on energy, the economy, and the environment.
Candidates in Paterson will need to work hard to engage with these diverse voter concerns, ensuring that their messages resonate with constituents from all walks of life. For Meryl Swanson, retaining her seat will depend not only on her ability to defend Labor’s record but also on her capacity to address local concerns in a way that resonates with the electorate. For her challengers, the key will be to offer voters a clear alternative to the status quo, while demonstrating that they understand the unique challenges facing regional communities.
As the campaign intensifies in the lead-up to the elections, Paterson’s residents will be watching closely, aware that the outcome may have lasting consequences for the future of their region. Alongside the major contenders, other candidates including Rod Holding (Independent), Sandra Lyn Briggs (Family First), Peter N Arena (Trumpet of Patriots), and Daniel Dryden (Legalise Cannabis Party) are also on the ballot, each bringing their own perspectives to an electorate finely balanced between old loyalties and new uncertainties.
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🗳️#Paterson emerges as a key battleground with Labor’s @MerylSwanson defending a slim margin.⚖️Offshore windfarm controversy, job security & regional develpmnt dominate the debate.🌊Diverse candidates reflect growing voter discontent. 🔄 #TheIndianSunhttps://t.co/WbjztdB3y9
— The Indian Sun (@The_Indian_Sun) April 29, 2025
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