Bennelong, a federal electorate in New South Wales, covers Sydney’s northern suburbs, including Ryde, Eastwood, Epping, Marsfield and parts of Macquarie Park. It is shaping up to be one of the most contested seats in the 2025 federal election. Held by Labor’s Jerome Laxale with a paper-thin margin of 0.04%, the seat is now notionally Liberal following redistribution. Changing boundaries and voter profiles have added new heat to the contest, drawing heightened attention from major parties.
The 2021 Census recorded Bennelong’s population at 191,219, with a median age of 37. The electorate stands out for its cultural and linguistic diversity. Over 56% of residents were born overseas, with significant communities from China, South Korea and India. Chinese ancestry accounts for 28.8% of responses, while Mandarin is the most commonly spoken language other than English, followed by Cantonese and Korean. These demographic patterns are shaping campaign strategies, with candidates investing heavily in multicultural outreach, especially through platforms such as WeChat, Xiaohongshu and YouTube.
Jerome Laxale, representing the Australian Labor Party, entered federal politics after a decade in local government, including time as Mayor of the City of Ryde. His 2022 win reflected a sharp swing to Labor in a seat that had long favoured the Liberals. Laxale’s campaign has maintained its focus on infrastructure investment, community services and the cost of living. However, the redistribution has altered the balance of the electorate by incorporating areas with stronger historical support for the Liberal Party.
Scott Yung is the Liberal Party’s candidate. A former state candidate who narrowly lost in Kogarah in 2019, Yung represents the party’s younger generation and has strong connections within Sydney’s Chinese-Australian community. He has received backing from senior Liberal figures and is campaigning on themes of economic management, home ownership and security. The Liberals are targeting middle-income households under cost-of-living pressure, while also engaging culturally diverse communities through language-specific messaging and digital advertising.
The Greens have preselected Adam Hart, who has been active in local environmental campaigns. Hart’s platform centres on climate action, sustainable development and housing affordability. In Bennelong, where urban consolidation, traffic congestion and green space preservation are regular concerns, the Greens’ message appeals to voters in precincts such as Eastwood and Epping. While the party’s overall vote share in Bennelong is modest, preferences from Greens voters often play a decisive role in close contests between major parties.
Craig Bennett is contesting for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, advocating policies on immigration control, energy self-reliance and law and order. The party’s messaging, tailored toward concerns about cultural integration and economic disruption, resonates with a small but consistent segment of the electorate. Bennett’s candidacy adds to the complex web of preferences, although One Nation has historically secured only a low primary vote in Bennelong.
Additional candidates include Eric Chan for Family First, Barry Devine for the HEART Party, Robert Nalbandian for Trumpet of Patriots, and John August for FUSION. Each brings distinct platforms unlikely to shift primary votes, though they may shape preferences.
In the 2022 federal election, Labor achieved a two-party-preferred result of 51.0% in Bennelong, buoyed by a 7.9% swing. This reversed a decade of Liberal dominance in the seat. However, the redistribution has shifted the centre of gravity. The inclusion of Liberal-leaning suburbs from the now-abolished seat of North Sydney, particularly around Lane Cove and parts of Chatswood, has bolstered the Liberal Party’s prospects. Analysis by the Australian Electoral Commission and political analysts at the ABC now classify Bennelong as notionally Liberal.
Turnout in Bennelong at the last election was 92.0%, higher than the national average, reflecting strong civic engagement. The informal vote rate was 5.8%, consistent with national trends for urban electorates with large migrant populations. These figures suggest a well-informed and participatory electorate, although language barriers and unfamiliarity with preferential voting remain challenges among new citizens.
Campaign activity on social media has surged in recent weeks. Data from Meltwater and other media tracking platforms show that Laxale’s presence has increased steadily on Facebook and Instagram, focusing on video content related to community visits and infrastructure announcements. Yung’s campaign, meanwhile, has emphasised paid promotions on WeChat and Xiaohongshu, targeting Mandarin-speaking users. Several high-engagement posts in Chinese-language groups have linked the Labor Party with perceived risks to home ownership and rising taxation—claims that Labor supporters have attempted to counter through translated clarifications and endorsements.
The circulation of controversial materials, including a now-viral video on WeChat suggesting radical policy shifts under a re-elected Labor government, has raised concerns among observers. The video, traced to a Melbourne-based member of a Liberal campaign group, uses Mandarin subtitles and emotive imagery to suggest that Labor and the Greens intend to impose wealth taxes and other reforms unfavourable to middle-class families. While not officially endorsed by the Liberal Party, the video’s impact on public sentiment has been noted by analysts tracking discourse trends in multicultural digital spaces.
Local issues remain at the heart of the campaign. Housing affordability remains one of the most frequently raised topics, particularly in areas like Ryde, where rising rental costs have outpaced wage growth. Transport infrastructure, including congestion on Victoria Road and the integration of Metro rail services, continues to shape public opinion. Community safety, small business viability and educational equity have also featured prominently in candidate forums and council-led consultations.
The demographic composition of Bennelong ensures that language accessibility is more than a campaign tool—it is a necessity. Candidates have released translated policy summaries and attended community events hosted by Chinese, Korean and Indian cultural associations. Schools and faith-based organisations are emerging as key venues for outreach.
Polling data specific to Bennelong is limited, but national mood tracking suggests a narrow contest. While Labor holds government nationally, polling indicates that outer-metropolitan and inner-suburban seats with tight margins—like Bennelong—are at risk if economic concerns dominate voting decisions. The Liberal Party’s chances are buoyed by the redistribution, but their success depends on persuading enough voters in areas like Eastwood, Macquarie Park and Epping to shift allegiance.
On current indicators, the seat remains too close to call. With no major independent running this cycle, unlike in neighbouring electorates, the preference distribution among Greens, One Nation and other minor party voters will be instrumental. Early voting patterns and postal vote uptake will also influence the result, with the Australian Electoral Commission forecasting increased early turnout due to convenience and rising enrolment among younger voters.
Bennelong’s election result will be closely watched as a barometer of broader electoral dynamics. Its shifting boundaries, linguistic diversity and political competitiveness encapsulate many of the factors reshaping federal contests across Australia’s major cities. The outcome will depend not only on candidate performance but on the ability of campaigns to connect across cultural and economic divides, respond to emerging digital narratives and mobilise voters in one of the country’s most finely balanced seats.
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