Six voices, one Swan

The Division of Swan, located just east of Perth’s CBD, is shaping up to be a tightly watched contest in the 2025 federal election. Stretching from South Perth to Cannington and Bentley, this inner metropolitan seat blends established suburbs, younger university-adjacent precincts, and pockets of new development. Demographically diverse, Swan has become an increasingly competitive electorate, attracting high-profile attention from major parties and growing interest from minor challengers.

According to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, Swan has a population of just under 170,000, with a median age of 34, making it younger than the national average. Nearly half of its residents were born overseas, with strong representation from India, China, Malaysia, and the United Kingdom. Nearly 45 percent of households speak a language other than English at home, and education levels are high due to proximity to Curtin University and several technical institutions. Renters account for over 40 per cent of households, indicating a more transient and cost-sensitive voter base.

The seat is currently held by Zaneta Mascarenhas of the Australian Labor Party, who won in 2022 with a 8.6 per cent swing after long-time Liberal MP Steve Irons retired. Mascarenhas, an environmental engineer by background, was part of Labor’s wider Perth gains during the last federal contest, winning on a two-party preferred basis with 55.7 percent of the vote. This result marked a sharp departure from previous trends, as Swan had historically leaned Liberal.

Mascarenhas is recontesting in 2025, joined on the ballot by Mic Fels for the Liberal Party, Clint Uink for the Greens (WA), Shelley Leech representing the Legalise Cannabis Party, Michael Halley for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, and Mark Staer running under the Australian Christians banner. Each of the six candidates brings distinct ideological views, reflecting the electorate’s broad political appetite.

Past election data indicates that while Mascarenhas holds a comfortable margin, the Liberal vote base in Swan remains potent. In 2019, the Liberal Party secured the seat with 53 per cent of the two-party vote, suggesting the outcome can be volatile depending on turnout and national mood. The 2022 result was aided by a broader anti-Morrison sentiment in Western Australia, which saw Labor gain four seats in the state.

Early campaign activity suggests both major parties are investing heavily in the ground game. Mascarenhas has focused on local infrastructure improvements, TAFE funding, and community engagement events. Fels is emphasising housing affordability, congestion management, and crime reduction. The Greens’ visibility has increased in Curtin and Victoria Park, with targeted social campaigns centred on renters and students.

Social media sentiment, as tracked by digital analytics platform SignalPoint, shows a mixed landscape. Labor enjoys high engagement in family-oriented areas such as Bentley and East Victoria Park, while Liberal-aligned posts gain traction in Como and Waterford. The Greens have a noticeable presence among younger voters, particularly around the university precincts, though their reach remains limited outside those clusters.

Turnout in Swan during the 2022 federal election was 89.9 per cent, slightly above the national average. The informal vote rate stood at 4.6 per cent. Swing patterns across booths were uneven, with Mascarenhas outperforming in areas such as Rivervale and St James but trailing slightly in South Perth and Salter Point. The overall swing of 8.6 per cent towards Labor was among the largest in the country and helped secure the seat.

Local issues are playing a prominent role in shaping this year’s contest. Housing affordability continues to dominate the discussion, especially among young families and renters. The recent rise in interest rates and rental shortages across Perth have led to a visible sense of economic unease. Cost of living pressures, particularly in relation to groceries, fuel, and healthcare, are being closely tracked across social platforms and discussed widely in community forums. Public transport, particularly concerns around capacity and service frequency on the Armadale and Thornlie lines, has also featured heavily in local news coverage.

Environmental concerns, while traditionally less prominent in outer Perth electorates, are gaining momentum here. Proposed developments along the Canning River have drawn criticism from local conservation groups, while debates around the WA government’s climate adaptation policies have fed into broader federal campaign discussions. Education funding, particularly for TAFEs and local schools, is another area receiving consistent attention.

The swing required for the Liberals to reclaim Swan is around 5.7 per cent on a two-party basis. Historical trends suggest this is not insurmountable, particularly if there is a broader state or national shift. However, early postal polling rates and community sentiment point to entrenched support for Mascarenhas in areas where Labor previously struggled.

As the campaign intensifies over the coming weeks, all candidates will need to balance national messaging with hyper-local responsiveness. With its youthful, multilingual, and economically varied population, Swan remains a textbook marginal seat. Its eventual result may offer a telling indicator of Western Australia’s political mood heading into 2025.