Deakin, perched on a knife-edge with a margin of just 0.02%, is once again a seat where every doorstep conversation matters. Michael Sukkar, the Liberal incumbent, clings to one of the narrowest leads in federal politics. His opponent, Labor’s Matt Gregg, is back for a second attempt, buoyed by the slimmest of near-wins last time. The electorate in Melbourne’s east may have already made up its mind. Or it may yet surprise everyone.
Spanning leafy suburbs such as Blackburn, Ringwood, Mitcham, Vermont and Croydon, Deakin covers 79 square kilometres and is home to just over 110,000 people. ABS data points to a community of established professionals, with a median age north of 40, and homeownership rates above 75%. More than 30% of its residents were born overseas—many from China, India, the UK and Malaysia—giving the area a degree of diversity not always visible in its campaign materials.
Sukkar has held Deakin since 2013 and now sits in the shadow cabinet as the spokesperson for Social Services. His message tends to be economic, with a focus on the Liberals’ traditional strengths. Yet the 2022 election carved away much of his previous buffer, producing a swing of 4.5% against him and taking the result down to a recount. The figures speak to unease, not only with national policy but with local service delivery.
Gregg, a local councillor, enters the race with experience and a near-win behind him. His campaign has zoned in on day-to-day pressures: energy bills, rent increases, hospital queues, and transport delays. In an electorate heavy with mortgages, interest rate rises hit especially hard. That emotional trigger—when voters see their repayments climb while their wages stall—is exactly what the Liberals are hoping will turn Deakin their way once again. Gregg’s task is to translate the Prime Minister’s housing commitments—more supply, targeted support for first home buyers—into a message that resonates with voters already feeling the pinch. Whether that cuts through with families staring down monthly repayments is the question.
There is no shortage of names on the ballot. Amy Mills is running for the Greens, Jess Ness as an independent, and Anne Cooke for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation. Family First fields Richard Griffith-Jones, Milton Wilde runs for Trumpet of Patriots, and Will Vandermeer for the Libertarians. All are drawing attention to different issues: immigration, climate, family, sovereignty. Most will not win, but their preferences could swing the count. In a contest this tight, preference flows matter more than ever.
Turnout last time was robust, with 92.7% of enrolled voters casting a ballot. The informal vote was modest, at just under 5%. This is an electorate that participates, and participates with intent. The people of Deakin take their vote seriously, and many have strong views about what has or hasn’t worked over the past term.
Online discussion provides a helpful temperature check. Social media sentiment has turned notably cost-of-living focused. Facebook groups in Mitcham and Ringwood are brimming with talk about childcare gaps, rising utility bills, and the lack of bulk-billing GPs. On X, voters engage more combatively, questioning both major parties on tax settings and inflation response. Gregg appears to have the louder digital following, but Sukkar’s campaign materials are sharper, with a heavy presence in paid local placements.
Transport remains a slow-burning issue. Local papers regularly report frustration with connections between key suburbs. Ringwood and Croydon residents want better trains. Vermont and Mitcham want direct bus routes that don’t require changing lines. The push for federal investment into suburban rail and road upgrades is long-standing, and many voters have grown tired of promises that don’t materialise.
Healthcare pressures are also mounting. Wait times at emergency departments across nearby hospitals are stretching, with some residents sharing stories of being redirected from Box Hill or Maroondah. The opposition links the delays to federal shortcomings in workforce planning and hospital funding, while Gregg’s campaign walks a tighter line—acknowledging the strain but pointing to investments aimed at long-term system repair.
There’s a sense this race could be a case of turnout tipping the balance. Gregg’s path to victory relies on younger families, renters, and newly settled migrants showing up and voting early. Sukkar’s advantage lies in rusted-on Liberal voters in suburbs like Blackburn North and Vermont South. The battle will be fought in letterboxes, on digital platforms, and in crowded commuter car parks where volunteers hand out how-to-vote cards.
This is not a contest of sweeping national visions. It’s a story of marginal gains in mortgage territory. The kind of place where a 0.5% interest rate rise could matter more than a billion-dollar federal budget announcement. The outcome will offer insight into whether suburbia is staying with the status quo, or whether the frustration has grown too loud to ignore. Whatever the result, Deakin is no longer anyone’s safe seat.
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