It’s always the students. Whenever housing gets expensive, grocery prices pinch the wallet or someone can’t find a park in the city, blame the students. That’s the tone Peter Dutton struck this morning when he announced the Opposition’s latest play ahead of the federal election—slashing international student numbers by around 80,000 enrolments a year. The pitch is blunt: fewer students, more homes, less pressure. But this clean, voter-friendly message starts to look murky once you stare at the data for more than a few seconds.
This is Dutton’s housing plan in a nutshell: public universities will be capped at 115,000 annual commencements, private colleges and VET providers at 125,000. The cuts are pegged to ease housing pressures by supposedly “freeing up” 40,000 homes in the first year. That claim assumes a neat one-to-one link between a migrant and a housing unit, a concept that ignores the reality of flatshares, student accommodation and group rentals. The truth is that many international students rent rooms, not entire properties, and often do so in clusters. The country’s housing shortage is estimated to be over 200,000 homes—this plan barely dents it.
And yet, the Coalition seems confident the headline will do the job.
It already has many in the community fuming. Saumil Patel sees through the pitch: “Looks like he’s not understanding migration economy or he’s fooling Australians by promising such things,” he said. “Remember during COVID lockdown, Aussie universities were struggling to survive because of low number of international students. That will impact the overall economy, including employment at those places. International students are never a problem, lack of industry and employment opportunities here is.”
The post-pandemic bounce in student numbers was one of the few bright spots for Australia’s economy. Enrolments jumped 65% in a single year. In 2023, international students in universities hit 453,796, making up 31% of the total student body. Their economic contribution? Over $50 billion from fees, rent, retail, food and travel. Lose them, and the shockwaves don’t just hit universities—they spread across cafes, rentals, cab services and supermarkets.
That’s what makes this a risky game. Universities Australia estimates the proposed cuts could cost the sector $5.8 billion. The Group of Eight universities, many of which lean heavily on full-fee-paying students, are in line for a separate whack: a $5,000 visa surcharge per head. The message? Go to Canada or the US instead, we’re tightening the gate.
And while Dutton positions this as a housing fix, those doing the building could be hit too. The policy includes a 25% cut to permanent migration, from 185,000 to 140,000. One of the sectors already crying out for help is construction—short of 90,000 workers. Less migration equals fewer skilled tradies, which equals slower builds. It’s a house of cards.
Some see the finger-pointing as dishonest. “They don’t see large number of NZ citizens moving to Aus and huge amounts of refugees. International students are used as scapegoat,” said Jaydip Patel. Others are just angry at the double standard. “Billions of dollars NDIS scam is fine. But immigrants,” Satyam Sakariya wrote.
Then there’s Dharam Somal, who takes a sharper view: “Just for 3 months, ask all non-permanent and international students to stop paying tax. You will get your figures. Of revenue. Another election stunt.”
In parts of Sydney and Melbourne where international students cluster—Ultimo, Haymarket, Kensington, Carlton and Docklands—rents may nudge slightly lower if numbers drop. But the best estimate is around a $5 per week drop in rent across these cities. That’s not a housing policy. That’s a rounding error.
The international education sector is Australia’s third-largest export. Cutting it at the knees isn’t a clever strategy; it’s a short-term fix with long-term costs. It undermines a trusted system and creates instability in a sector that has been one of the country’s global soft power wins. Prince Sidhu summed it up bluntly: “That’s why US is way ahead of them.”
This isn’t about housing, really. It’s about positioning. It’s about tapping into the growing frustration many Australians feel when their rent goes up again, or when house prices make the 10km radius around their workplace unaffordable. But turning international students into scapegoats only works if voters don’t ask too many questions.
The impact on students themselves is more than just financial. For many, it’s a choice between a dream and a dead end. Fewer places, higher costs, visa uncertainty, and a message from the government that they’re the problem. It’s hardly the welcome mat you’d expect from a country that depends on its education brand.
And what happens to those purpose-built student buildings if the numbers fall? Investors may try to convert them into general rentals, but that comes with its own problems—zoning, infrastructure, and the mismatch between tiny student rooms and what families need. It’s not the silver bullet it appears to be.
Even if Dutton’s plan leads to fewer international students and slightly lower rents in a few select postcodes, the housing crisis will remain. The real pressure points—planning approvals, labour shortages, tax settings for developers—are still unaddressed. And the bigger questions—how to balance growth, immigration and infrastructure—will still be sitting there when the election is over.
For now, the Opposition has its talking point. But it’s borrowed time. When the cranes are idle, the lecture halls are half-empty, and the cafés near campus shut early, the hangover from this policy will be impossible to ignore.
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🏠@PeterDutton_MP proposes 80k cut to international students to "ease housing", but experts warn it'll cost unis $5.8B & worsen construction worker shortages. 🏠 📉 Scapegoating students ignores real housing policy fixes needed. 📉 #TheIndianSunhttps://t.co/LaSPJI9Dim
— The Indian Sun (@The_Indian_Sun) April 7, 2025
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