Victoria’s housing ambitions are running into stiff opposition as the state government presses ahead with revised targets, while communities and councils push back against top-down planning. The Allan government initially set a target of 2 million new homes by 2051 but has now wound this back to 1.78 million, reflecting concerns from councils and communities over infrastructure and density.
New data confirms Victoria’s leadership in housing completions, with 61,260 homes built in the past year—outpacing every other state by at least 15,600 dwellings. Planning Minister Sonya Kilkenny touts the figures as evidence that streamlined approvals and transit-oriented development are unlocking much-needed supply. Yet critics argue that the revised housing blueprint reflects political manoeuvring more than sound urban planning.
Shadow Planning Minister Richard Riordan has led the charge against what he calls “politically driven planning,” accusing the government of sidelining councils and forcing high-rise developments into established suburbs without proper consultation. The opposition has zeroed in on the removal of third-party appeal rights in 10 activity centres, allowing projects to bypass local councils entirely. “No voice, no choice—that’s Labor’s approach,” Riordan said.
Despite lowering the overall target, the government insists that bold action is necessary. The Housing Statement promises 15,000 extra homes through faster approvals and a $32 billion investment under the Homes for Australia Plan. More than $248 million has already been unlocked for roads and sewage infrastructure in Victoria, enabling 3,781 new dwellings through the Housing Support Program.
However, analysts warn that these efforts may fall short. The Grattan Institute points out that Victoria needs 80,000 new homes annually to meet its 2051 target—far beyond current completion rates. Researcher Brendan Coates has flagged infrastructure shortfalls as a major stumbling block, arguing that the cost of supporting new housing in existing suburbs is half that of greenfield developments. Without stronger land tax reforms to encourage density, he suggests the government risks missing its own targets.
The backlash is growing in communities like Torquay North, where a ministerial-approved 400-dwelling social housing project has drawn sharp criticism over congestion and strained public services. Resident petitions, some with thousands of signatures, demand an end to high-rise zoning that overrides heritage protections. Even councils initially resistant to development, such as Glen Eira and Monash, have secured revised targets that better align with local sentiment.
The political stakes became clearer in October 2024 when the government released draft plans for 10 activity centres, allowing mid-rise developments of three to six storeys in key areas. While the government describes this as “gentle density,” opposition voices claim it is a tactical concession designed to spare Labor-held electorates from the most dramatic changes.
The numbers tell a mixed story. Victoria’s annual housing completions have risen 8.8% compared to last year, even as approvals dipped by 4.4% in NSW. Federal funding is injecting fresh capital into enabling works, and the state’s 2050 Plan is set to provide a longer-term housing roadmap.
Urban Development Institute CEO Linda Allison puts it bluntly: “Targets alone won’t build homes. We need councils, developers, and communities rowing in the same direction.”
For now, Victoria’s housing debate remains caught between urgency and consent. The opposition promises to restore local decision-making if elected, while the government argues that streamlined planning is the only way forward. With community anger simmering and infrastructure still lagging behind, the challenge is clear—building homes is one thing, but getting people to accept them is another.
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